Despite this year’s presidential elections eliciting mixed feeling and reactions, Trump vs. Clinton fight isn’t an ideal matchup. But after months of polling, the landscape around the Electoral College mirrors the same scene as in the previous four cycles. The already feisty general-election clash is already up in a familiar territory, and according to what’s seemingly clear, some selected states will determine the eventual winner.
In the previous elections, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio and Wisconsin helped rubber-stamp the current administration. However, the map isn’t constant perhaps because of the dynamics and the demographic changes that may have triggered a state to switch toward a different candidate. You will remember that President Obama won in all the 11 states in 2008 and 10 of the 11 in 2012.
However, the changes coupled with the uncertainties around Trump’s campaign offers Hilary’s camp a perceivably larger advantage as America head to the final laps of the elections. At the moment, polls show that Clinton is ahead across the country and it eight of the individual battleground states. At the same time, Trump’s strongest support emanates from the whites with no college education.
Since whites have been reducing as a share of the electorate with three out of every ten expected to be non-white, the reason for Clinton’s lead isn’t a wild guess. The movement isn’t so uniform because some swing states have more non-whites while others are broadening their horizons far much faster than others.
From the diversification comes the usual cadre of swing states: pro-democrat states and the pro-republican ones. Aside from that, some non-traditional states are up for grabs. Arizona and Georgia tend to support a Democrat. By and large, the states to determine the eventual winner include:
The Sunbelt states – All these states are known for their somewhat unusual voting patterns. They back Bush twice before reversing back to Obama in 2008 and 2012.
Additionally, four of them are more diverse than the whole of America and Latino voters comprise a growing share of the electorate in three of them. North Carolina and Virginia boast of a larger number of African-American voters and blends well with the influx of college-educated white voters who essentially lean towards the Democrats’ side. But, since Clinton is doing pretty well so far, being a winner won’t be a surprise.
The Blue Wall states that are predominantly white have always backed a Democrat including John Kerry and President Obama. But, since the Democrats think that the white voters’ drift to the GOP will help them, Trump is still optimistic of a win in the six states. So far, everyone is focused on clinching a win in their rival’s background and a larger share of the five swing states.